RSA Chase Betting

The big story has been the problems with the lameness of Punchestowns, currently 7/2 with Stan James.

I don’t know if they were being over-cautious here and mentioning the problem thus causing many a worry for those that have already backed him but all appears to be well again after a canter on Saturday.

As a result Long Run is now favourite at 11/4 with Stan James but if Punchestowns is fully fit I maintain he is the one to beat. There are too many worries with Long Run for me (age, jumping and jockey) to contemplate backing him at around 5/2.

Besides, I prefer Punchestowns of the Henderson runners (which also includes Burton Port who I just don’t see as good enough). Other than that, I don’t think Diamond Harry likes it up him, or will jump well enough, and if The Nightingale runs it will be against his trainer’s wishes, which is enough to put me off.

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It looks like The Nightingale will miss Cheltenham altogether for Aintree if Paul Nicholls gets his way but there was a turnaround in the plans for Burton Port who will now tackle the race. Henderson commented after he won the Reynoldstown Chase that he would probably wait for Aintree but I suspect Trevor Hemmings wants a runner so they changed their plan.

Weapon’s Amnesty is a tough, hardy horse and I’m hopeful he can finish in the frame. His jumping is a worry, but he tends to warm up during his races. I’m more worried that some of the stable’s horses have had mucus in their systems. If he is clear of those problems that have supposedly affected Solwhit and Pittoni (see Champion Hurdle), jumps okay, and the ground is no worse than good-soft, then I think he is just the kind of horse to put up a big run back up to 3m which he needs.

RSA Chase Tip

• Back Weapons Amnesty @ 9/1 with Paddy Power