Supreme Novice’s Hurdle Betting

The top two mile novice hurdlers can be seen opening the Cheltenham festival in the Supreme Novice Hurdle. Irish trainers have won seven of the last ten runnings and again, look to have a great chance of winning the two mile event. Past winners who went on to bigger and better things include Hors La Loi III, Like-A-Butterfly and Brave Inca.

Every year there is much talk of a Cheltenham ‘banker’ and high on the list is this year’s favourite, Dunguib, last years very impressive Cheltenham and Punchestown bumpers winner. Philip Fenton’s son of Presenting has gone unbeaten over the smaller obstacles this season, winning every race hard held. In doing so, his price to win the race has tumbled to around 4-6 with Bluesq

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Much has been made of Dunguib’s jumping and many have said he’s a poor jumper. To those people, I laugh at you. After much studying of his races, Dunguib jumps just fine! People forget that he is a novice; he is allowed and in away, supposed to make mistakes. If you really wanted to be picky, you could say he jumped much better going right-handed. His victories at Galway, Punchestown and Fairyhouse showed this, as he jumped much better at the above tracks then he did at Leopardstown. Furthermore, all four races were run at a good clip. Come Cheltenham, I’d have no worries about Dunguib’s jumping.

A slight worry would be his inexperienced rider but in fairness, he knows the horse better then anybody at this stage. Dunguib’s jumping may be rivalled by some of his other competitors but what is unrivalled is his engine. I really can’t see Dunguib being beat! At 4-6, he is no price though.

Second favourite to Dunguib is Jonjo O’Neil’s impressive Totesport Hurdle winner, Get Me Out Of Here (8-1 with Stan James) The son of Accordion has been progressing all year and won the Totesport in very taking fashion. The time of that race was very good and he did beat a decent field. He made quite a bad mistake at the last but picked up well and quickened away nicely.

He looks a very progressive animal and could be anything in time to come. However I’m not sure about backing him at Cheltenham; he had quite a set back after his last race, gashing his leg badly at Newbury. He has been on the easy list since and is still not back in work. Not the best preparation for a highly competitive race is it? Expect a big run though; I just think there are others who offer better value and who have had a better preparation.

Joint third favourite is the Philip Hobb’s trained Menorah at 12-1. The son of King’s Theatre has blown hot and cold this year, winning impressively at Kempton before being turned over at a short price last Saturday. In doing so, he drifted from 8’s out to 12-1 with Ladbrokes. I think it was a harsh/stupid reaction by the bookmakers as the race was a bit of a farce. Menorah had to make his own running for the majority of the race, something that wouldn’t have suited.

Also, Richard Johnson didn’t cover himself in glory, giving the horse a bad ride. The race at Cheltenham should be run to suit. Looking at his pedigree, a good strong pace will be welcomed. There’s plenty of stamina on the dams side, as she is related to a thorough stayer in Jet Boys. Furthermore, Menorah being a son of King’s Theatre, should get conditions to suit at Cheltenham. Most of King’s Theatre’s progeny do like quick ground, which Menorah should get come March 16th.

Vying with Menorah at 12-1 is the Nicky Henderson trained Oscar Whisky. The son of Oscar has a similar profile to Get Me Out Of Here, as he’s been progressing all year. In total, he’s won all four of his starts, winning two hurdles and two bumpers. Over hurdles, he hasn’t beat much but he couldn’t have won any easier in his two starts. His bumper form looks rock solid though. In his second Newbury bumper, he gave seven pounds to all but one of his rivals and won very nicely, travelling very sweetly throughout. Oscar Whisky looks a live contender to Dunguib and is a great each-way bet.

Of the rest, I can’t really see much else getting into the race but Willie Mullins may have a dark horse in Blackstairmountain. He’s from a very decent flat staying family and it’s often the case that good flat breed horses do well in this race. He made a nice introduction to hurdling three weeks ago but I’d be worried about his lack of experience. On the plus side, with Paul Nicholls not having a strong hand in the race, Ruby could take the ride on the son of Imperial Ballet.

Overall it’s very hard to get away from Dunguib but at 4-6 he is no price. Blackstairmountain hasn’t got enough experience for me, so I’m willing to pass him over. At 8-1 Get Me Out Of Here is no real value especially with his less then ideal preparation. Of the remaining two, I really couldn’t put you off Menorah or Oscar Whisky. I think the two of them will run big races but with Nicky Henderson training the later and having a form line through Menorah (with Lush Life), I’m going to put forward Oscar Whisky as an each-way selection. I still see Dunguib winning the opening race of the festival though.