Arkle Challenge Trophy Medermit the one to beat?

Cheltenham expert Cathryn Fry continues her look at the Festival with an analysis of the Arkle, which features on the the first day. Will she lump on the favourite Medermit at 4/1?

The Arkle Challenge Trophy was introduced to the Festival in 1969 as a replacement for the Cotswold Chase. Named after the great Arkle a three time winner of The Cheltenham Gold Cup, it’s a two mile event for novice chasers. To win the Arkle you have to jump quick and well, plus ideally stay more than two miles. French bred horses hold a fantastic record in the race.

Ghizao impressed when winning the November Novices Chase at the Paddy Power meeting at Cheltenham in November over 2m. Both Azertyuiop and Contraband won the race in the same season as winning the Arkle. Ghizao won by ten lengths to the also Arkle bound Captain Chris. He then followed up in the Hallowe’en Trophy at Newbury in December over 2m2f. He Looks tailor made for the Arkle on paper; currently heads the market at 4/1 with Finian’s Rainbow and Medermit. The one statistic he has to overcome is that horses who have not run in the calendar year have a poor record. Stats are there to be smashed though and I certainly wouldn’t want to be laying this fella!

Medermit An impressive winner of the Scilly Isles Novices Chase at Sandown last time out over 2m 4f. He was second to Hells Bay in the Dipper Chase over 2m5f at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day. He came second to Go Native in the Supreme Novices of 2009, also finished fourth to Hurricane Fly in the Rabobank Champion Hurdle at the Punchestown Festival last year when his stable was really out of form. Can be moody as we saw with his refusal to race at Huntingdon in November, hopefully that is ironed out now. Trainer Alan King rates him as his most likely Festival winner.

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Finian’s Rainbow was fifth in the Neptune behind leading Champion Hurdle fancy Peddlers Cross at last year’s Festival. He remains unbeaten over fences so far this season. It’s hard what to make of his performance at Warwick in the Kingmaker Chase last time out as although he won, it was hardly impressive. Connections stated after that race that it was satisfactory in their eyes as it had been an exercise in teaching him to settle. Personally I feel he is very short in the market for what he has achieved. However the Kingmaker has produced two Arkle winners in Flagship Uberalles and Voy Por Ustedes.

Realt Dubh is Irelands leading hope and has already racked up two Grade one wins and a victory in Grade two company this season. Was seventh to Mikael D’haguenet in the Neptune of 2009. Just won the Grade one Irish Arkle at Leopardstown by a short head from Noble Prince last time out. Very classy, stays 2m4f and has to be on any shortlist.

Starluck did everything that he needed to do when making his first appearance over fences at Huntingdon on Wednesday. There is no doubt that he is extremely talented, his 160 rating as a hurdler tells that story. He is yet to be confirmed for the Arkle by Trainer Alan Fleming. Personally I hope we see him at Aintree rather than Cheltenham, as who can forget the way he came storming down the hill seemingly pulling a train in the Triumph Hurdle of 2009, only to struggle when meeting the rising ground at the finish. His class carried him into 4th place that day as it did when 5th to Binocular in last year’s Champion Hurdle. As low as 8/1 for the Arkle now but let’s hope we see him lit up over the Mildmay fences at Aintree in April.

Captain Chris put up his best performance over fences so far in just failing to reel in Medermit in the Scilly Isles Chase. Has twice finished second to Ghizao this season. Was an impressive performer over Hurdles last season. Has the tendency to make a mistake and there is no room for error when it comes to jumping in the Arkle.

Noble Prince also holds an entry in the Ryan Air. Has been runner up to Realt Dubh twice in Grade one company in Ireland. Is most likely to line up in the Ryan Air but if switched to the Arkle he would be interesting due to the fact he stays and his good recent form in Ireland. He was beaten less than seven lengths in the County Hurdle at last year’s Festival behind Thousand Stars.

Mikael D’Haguenet hold entries in the Arkle and the RSA Connections are still deciding as to where he will line up.

Predicted first three past the post:

Medermit

Realt Dubh

Ghizao