Champion Hurdle – Where the value lies?

With some 60 days to go until the Smurfit Kappa Champion Hurdle, Robert Catterson takes a look at where the value lies at this moment in time.

Zaynar looks a cracking bet at 5/1 for victory in the Smufitt Cappa Champion Hurdle

The Smurfit Kappa Champion Hurdle picture has never looked as muddled. Some horses are beating one another every time they run, others are just not firing. And we also know of a couple who are unlikely to be there come March 16.

The current market leader is last year’s Triumph Hurdle hero Zaynar (4/1), who in fairness hasn’t done anything wrong in his two runs so far this season. Okay, he didn’t set the world alight when beating much inferior opposition at Cheltenham on Boylesports International day but he did look very good when winning the Ascot Hurdle prior to that. And that form has been franked by Karabak since.

But is he a worthy favourite? The jury is out on that one for now because he hasn’t looked as effective over 2m in the past, despite his win in the Triumph Hurdle over course and distance last March. But he’s still unbeaten too, so who knows how good he really is.

In fact, in recent days, Zaynar was joined at the head of the betting by Solwhit (4/1), who has also racked up two wins this season. His victory in the Morgiana Hurdle at Punchestown was a better effort than his December Hurdle success. But on his disappointing effort in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle, when the offered excuses weren’t really justified, his current price doesn’t appeal. He is due to run next in the Toshiba Irish Champion Hurdle on January 24.

Of the top three in the betting, Go Native (5/1) appears to hold the more solid claims. Since his below-par effort at Down Royal, Noel Meade’s charge has looked a different proposition altogether. A hugely impressive display in the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle was followed up by nearly as good a performance at Kempton and he goes into the Champion Hurdle having won last season’s Supreme Novices’.

Some may say he got there too soon in the Christmas Hurdle, but he did hit the front a lot sooner at Cheltenham last March and still won. He’s not scheduled to have a run before the Champion Hurdle and he’s a rock solid option at this stage. And he’ll be just as effective with a fast or sedate gallop on the day.

With some forecasting as many as three Champion Hurdles going the way of Binocular (7/1) on the lead-up to last year’s renewal, it’s probably no surprise that the six-year-old hasn’t won on either of his starts this season. He disappointed badly at Newcastle but did run much better in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton. He is held on both runs though by Go Native and while he’s likely to be at his peak come March 16, he’s clearly not as good as some had made him out to be.

Celestial Halo (9/1) hit the bar in last season’s race and while he looked good on his seasonal reappearance at Wincanton, as a lot of horses tend to do on their first runs, there were no apparent excuses for his defeat in the Boylesports International.

He had the race run to perfection that day and with connections already looking at a chasing career with him, it appears as even they know that he just doesn’t cut the mustard at this level.

The reigning champion Punjabi (10/1) has been really consistent over the past couple of years and never gets the credit he deserves. He’s already a winner of four Grade 1′s and connections were thrilled with his comeback run at Cheltenham when even the sheep on Cleeve hill knew that he was badly in need of the run.

The postponement of the Welsh Champion Hurdle doesn’t help his case though, given the fact that he is a thoroughly hard horse to get fit. It’s a must that an alternative race can be pencilled into his schedule within the next month and if that happens, he probably offers the best value of all in the race.

Khyber Kim (10/1) has gone up 22lbs for his two wins this season but no horse since Make A Stand has started the season as a handicapper and ended the term as champion. In hindsight, he won a below-par Boylesports International and given that his best form has come on soft ground, he’s likely to struggle on March 16.

If Dunguib (12/1) was a possible for the race, then he’d be a hugely interesting contender but connections have ruled that out so there’s no point in going down that path.

Starluck (12/1) put up a career best in the Christmas Hurdle on his last start but his run in last season’s Triumph Hurdle proved that he doesn’t get up the Cheltenham hill, while I’d be gobsmacked if either Voler La Vedette (14/1) or Mikael D’Haguenet (14/1) lined up on the day.

Sublimity (16/1) looks the best of the rest but he went into last year’s renewal in similar form but was hung out with the washing at the top of the hill. Medermit (25/1) looks a chaser in the making and chasers don’t win Champion Hurdles while Sentry Duty (25/1) would be interesting but with three leading contenders in the race, Nicky Henderson is highly unlikely to be tempted with this recent Cheltenham winner.

If you’re looking for a solid option, Go Native is the way to go at this stage but if you’re prepared to take a slight risk in the hope of the weather being kind enough for some of the Champion Hurdle trials to take place, then you can do a lot worse than taking the (10/1) on offer about Punjabi.