Why Denman can do it in the Cheltenham Gold Cup

Emma Kerwin continues to blog her love of the Cheltenham Festival and this year is no different, as she wrestles with her heart and her head. Can Denman win the 2011 Cheltenham Gold Cup?

Right, so this time last year the Gold Cup was being billed as the decider, and in all honestly, Kauto looked more likely.

Denman had just decked McCoy in the AON chase, Kauto had won the King George miles ahead of anything else, therefore it was little surprise when he went into the race strong favourite with the best odds at around 8/11. And well, we all know how that panned out.

However I am sure that Denman, who won it in 2008 is in with a shout this year. Before you start questioning my sanity, hear me out! This is the horse that went almost 3 years without getting beaten, and although he might not have all he did then he’s still a force to be reckoned with and something other entries feel intimidated.

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I know he hasn’t won since he won the 2009 Hennessey, but he’s run admirably on the whole, there was no shame in his 2010 Gold Cup second, and even less in his 2011 Hennessey third, when the amount of weight he was giving away made him little better than a sacrificial lamb. Should this have had been a conditions race I’m sure the result would be very different, and Kauto doesn’t have that excuse.

Imperial Commander heads the betting at the moment, which I think may be slightly optimistic. While he’s a better horse fresh, he’s not won two on the bounce since 2007, and the last run he’ll get before he goes for the Gold Cup will probably be his Haydock win.

Long Run maybe holds the biggest threat if Sam Waley-Cohen can ride with as much maturity as he did at Kempton Park to dethrone Katuo Star’s dominance in the King George. Kempes has also entered considerations for the race following his Irish Hennessey win, beating previous winner Joncol, who is similar to Denman in appearance and running style. Not to mention the fact that he’ll probably be partnered by A P McCoy, who, lets face it if there’s one man you want on a bit of an uncertainty it’s him!

However all that said, I think Denman is in with a really good shout this year. Yes he hasn’t won in a while, but a solid third with decent enough jumping in a big field where he was carrying almost two stone more than several other horses has to put him in some kind of contention. Then, of course there is the sentimentality factor.

Denman has been one of two horses two define a great, truly vintage era of jumps racing, and we have to accept that the Nicholls pair aren’t going to be around forever. However it was always Kauto Star that had a bit more of the limelight, and if Denman could bow out on a high and prove everyone who’s doubted him in the last year or so wrong, well, it would be wonderful.