Cheltenham Gold Cup Are Kauto and Denman too big to dismiss?

Resident Cheltenham Blogger Joel Neasham takes  look at the jewel in the Cheltenham Crown – The Gold Cup on the Friday. Will he be lumping on Imperial Commander? This is part 1 of his report.

Following from my ramblings on the Champion Hurdle my next attempt to decipher a winner is going to be in the big one – The Cheltenham Gold Cup.

I think this is a very interesting race as it could signal the end of an era or on the other hand – it could see the Old Guard hold on for another year at least. The ‘old guard’ I refer to are obviously ‘Kauto Star and Denman’, who in my opinion are both too big at their current prices. Denman is currently available at 7/1 with Kauto stuck on 8’s. The reasons behind these large prices are both, in my opinion, flawed.

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Denman’s defeat to Diamond Harry in the Hennessey is the reason Denman is the price he is – but lets not forget he was carrying almost 2 stone more than 1st and 2nd place in the race – now stick that weight on Diamond Harry and you’ve got a different story altogether.

The key points for me however are the times. Last years Gold Cup was won by Imperial Commander in 6m 43s and the Hennessey was won in 6m 28s by Diamond Harry – with Denman following it home by around 5 seconds (carrying Gold Cup weight), giving him a time of 6m 33s, or 10 seconds quicker than last years Gold Cup winning time.

Now I know each race is ran at different paces etc etc – but surely this gives value to 8/1 on Denman, surely there’s life in the old chap yet.

Kauto Star is, as mentioned above, generally 8/1 for Gold Cup glory, which although I feel is still too big of a price, there is definitely more logic to the reasoning behind it.

Kauto’s last outing was only last month in the re-scheduled King George where he was beaten rather comfortably by 20 lengths to Long Run.

Building up to this race, all the talk was that Kauto was in the shape of his life and had never been better which was reflected in the price of 4/7, the dilemma I have about this race is – Has Long Run finally realised its potential as a world beater or was Kauto Star as affected by this bleed as we are led to believe?

Either way we will find out come March 18th. Also, let’s not forget that Ruby Walsh should be back on board Kauto come this date and if anyone knows how to get the best out of him, its Ruby.

Another horse that you could class as an elder statesman is the reigning champ, Imperial Commander, who currently heads the market at around 3/1.

He’s not to be ignored and I may be made to eat my words here, but I just cannot see him winning again – don’t ask me why, I just don’t fancy him.

Part 2 of this Cheltenham Gold Cup report will follow!