Kauto Star v Denman Bets

With Kauto Star and Denman appearing so dominant for most of the season, punters have been looking to the ‘without’ markets (however I feel Cooldine and Imperial Commander have been correctly priced in those).

There has been a big swelling of support for Tricky Trickster on the preview evening circuit to finish second or third, but the value has now also dried up about him as a consequence. I personally feel that Kauto Star will win by a long way, so will have a look at winning margin bets on the day and fancy Cooldine to finish second.

Kauto Star

Probably the best chaser since Arkle and a third Gold Cup would be just rewards for an unbelievable horse.

His preparation for the defence of his crown has been pretty much faultless and his master trainer has protected him to ensure he is as fresh as a daisy. The long-term weather forecast looks kind for Kauto Star supporters as it seems unlikely the ground will be soft on the final day. Connections have said that soft ground wouldn’t be a major worry, but there is little doubt that good ground suits this fellow better than the majority of the others. It could be argued that a ‘back in-running’ strategy would be sensible for Kauto, as if Denman takes it up with a circuit to go, people will remember two years ago.

However, I’m of the opinion that Denman won’t be able to pour it on like he did that day and it’s unlikely that the champion will trade much bigger than his SP. He is up against some relatively unexposed types in Imperial Commander and Cooldine this year, though, so it wouldn’t be a bad idea to lock in a profit approaching the third last.

Denman

Paul Nicholls has said time and time again that Denman would come on massively for his run at Newbury and it would, of course, be dangerous to write off the former Gold Cup winner. It may be that his extraordinary Hennessy win took a lot out of him and his best chance of beating his next door neighbour is surely if the heaven’s open. Denman is a bruiser and it should be fairly obvious if he is back to his best when the field set out for the final circuit. If a number of them already look stretched, that would be the time to back AP McCoy’s mount.

There is no better front runner in jump racing than this monster of a horse and he has a habit of breaking hearts. Whether he will be able to do that on a sound surface is debatable, but he is all guts and Kauto will have to be on top form if he is to get past him.