As Christmas and New Year approaches, the discussions amongst horse racing punters are all very much centred on the Cheltenham Festival.

Now is the time to assess form, make predictions and generally get excited about four days worth of excellent, eye-catching racing at the 2012 Cheltenham Festival.

Forming a significant part of the action in March next year is the Pertemps Final (Handicap Hurdle) which is the second race to take place on the third day of the Festival, otherwise known as St Patrick’s Thursday.

Without doubt one of the best days at the Festival atmosphere wise with everything adopting a distinctly Irish flavour, the crowd are warmed up with the opening race on the Thursday, before this Handicap Hurdle takes centre stage.

The competitors of this Pertemps Final are horses that have won various qualifiers throughout the year in order to be part of the action at Cheltenham. Because of this, the winner is often an outside and this should be noted.

Look at the 2011 winner of this event for example. Buena Vista was a 20/1 shot but came in ahead of the rest, while back in 2006 Kadoun 9 was available at 50/1 before securing the win. This can be a profitable race for punters, no doubt about that.

As for who is favourite for the 2012 Pertemps Final, leading the way at this stage is Poungach at 10/1, followed by Paint The Clouds at 12/1 and Sivola De Sivola at 14/1.

However, it is perhaps worth waiting a few months before placing bets on this event. Things can change in the betting markets for many races of course, but particularly for this one. When the full line-up is announced, it is much easier to assess where the value bets might be.

Regardless though, it is a fascinating event on St Patrick’s Thursday and is set to get underway at 2.05pm on Thursday 15th March 2012.

Alfie Sherrin

Silk Affair (14/1 with Bet365)  is interesting, being a winner at last season’s Festival, and she isn’t that much higher in the handicap. She really caught the eye at Sandown last time in a handicap where the last two Pertemps Final winners were also unplaced.

She is a 5yo, which is a negative but, in truth, not that many with big chances have run.

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As it is, I will be backing a couple of last-time-out winners on the day, given horses with such a profile have won more handicap hurdles than not since 1993 from less than 20% of runners.

I’m leaning towards Fredo (16/1 with Boylesport) and Prince Erik (10/1 with 888Sport) in this respect, who won qualifiers for this race last time out. Neither appears to have been done any great favours by the handicapper, but both were undeniably very easy winners of those qualifiers.

Smoking Aces (12/1 with William Hill) is another last-time-out winner to consider, and strikes me as a horse crying out for this step up to three miles so I can also see myself backing him.

Pertemps Final Tip

• Back Smoking Aces @ 12/1 with William Hill

I think the recent money for Buena Vista has been significant but he wouldn’t want it soft whereas Blue Shark would relish it.

Synchronised would worry me as would P’Tit Fute whilst Ballydub is just the tough kind of horse to also go well in this race.

Of the big outsiders, Kawagino overperforms at this meeting and there are worse 50/1 shots than him.